The default: the Ofgem cap
If you have not chosen a tariff, you are probably on a default one. Ofgem’s price cap sets the maximum suppliers can charge people on default tariffs for each unit of energy and the daily standing charge. It is reviewed every three months. For 1 October to 31 December 2026 the Great Britain average, Direct Debit figures are 26.32p per kWh and 54.83p a day for electricity, and 7.97p per kWh and 29.68p a day for gas. We re-read the Ofgem page on 8 October 2026 and those are the figures. The page also states there is no VAT on electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027; gas carries 5%.
Two points that are easy to miss. The cap is a ceiling for default tariffs, not a recommended price, and regional rates differ from the national average. And the zero-VAT period is temporary, so any comparison made now will look slightly better for electricity than one made after 31 March 2027. Our running cost page uses these figures; at the cap, a heat pump at SCOP 3 makes heat at about 8.8p per kWh.
Types of electricity tariff
| Type | How it prices | Suits | Watch for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Default (capped) variable | One flat unit rate, set by the cap each quarter | Anyone; no commitment | It moves with the cap; not necessarily the cheapest |
| Fixed, flat rate | One unit rate fixed for a term | Those who want a known price | Exit fees; if the cap falls you may pay more than default |
| Time-of-use or heat pump tariff | Different rates at different times of day | Households that can shift heat to cheap windows, often with a hot water cylinder or buffer | Smart meter required; peak windows can cost more than the default |
| Smart or dynamic tariff | Rates follow wholesale prices or move half-hourly | Engaged users with automation | More price risk; needs equipment and attention |
Because electricity costs several times as much as gas per kWh at the cap, a heat pump on a flat default tariff ends up level with a gas boiler rather than far below it, as the running cost comparison shows. A tariff that lowers the average price you pay is the main way to change that, which is why it is worth understanding before you switch.
The arithmetic that decides
A tariff helps a heat pump owner by lowering the average price per kWh across everything the heat pump uses in a year. Not the cheapest advertised rate, but the average, weighted by when you actually use power. In our labelled model a home needs 12,000 kWh of heat a year; a heat pump at SCOP 3 then uses about 4,000 kWh of electricity. That gives a rule of thumb you can use with any quote:
| Average price falls by | Annual saving | Average price (from the cap rate) |
|---|---|---|
| 1p per kWh | £40 | 25.32p |
| 2p per kWh | £80 | 24.32p |
| 3p per kWh | £120 | 23.32p |
| 5p per kWh | £200 | 21.32p |
| 8p per kWh | £320 | 18.32p |
Because the whole heating bill in the model is only about £1,053, even a large unit-rate cut saves a few hundred pounds, not thousands. And a tariff that charges a higher standing charge can eat that. At the cap the electricity standing charge is about £200 a year, paid whatever the tariff. Always compare the annual total at your expected usage: units multiplied by the blended rate, plus the standing charge.
Remember too that a heat pump’s electricity use is only part of your bill. A household also has appliances, lighting and perhaps an electric vehicle, and a tariff has to suit all of it.
How a time-of-use product is built (one example)
As one example of how these products are structured, Octopus Energy’s Cosy Octopus page (read 8 October 2026) describes three kinds of period each day: cheap bands of 04:00-07:00, 13:00-16:00 and 22:00-00:00, a peak band of 16:00-19:00, and a day rate for the rest. It describes the cheap rate as 51% cheaper than the day rate and the peak as 50% above it, shows no pence rates on the page (you enter a postcode to see them), and says you need a heat pump, electric radiator or electric boiler to be eligible; many time-of-use products also need a smart meter. We are not recommending it and give no rate, because rates change; it is simply a real example of the structure.
Using only those relative differences, you can see how a blended average works. The shares of electricity in each window below are our assumptions, not measurements.
| Scenario (assumed) | Share in cheap bands | Share in peak | Blended average against the day rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Little load shifting | 30% | 20% | 5% below |
| Some load shifting | 50% | 10% | 20% below |
| Good load shifting | 65% | 5% | 31% below |
The lesson is in the first row: with a lot of load in the peak band the discount shrinks. Whether a time-of-use deal beats a flat default depends on the day rate it is built on as well, not only on the discount, which is why you compare the final annual total rather than the percentage.
Try your own electricity price
No details needed. Change any figure to match your own quote or bills. Results are indicative — an MCS installer’s heat-loss survey and written quote are what count.
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Difference per year at these prices.
Prices: Ofgem cap 1 October to 31 December 2026 — electricity 26.32p/kWh, gas 7.97p/kWh, gas standing charge 29.68p/day (GB average, Direct Debit); heating oil 114.8p/litre including 5% VAT (109.3p before VAT; BoilerJuice UK average for 1,000 litres, read 28 September 2026); 10.35 kWh per litre assumed. No VAT on household electricity from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, which flatters heat pumps in this window. LPG prices vary too much to default — use your own bills. Illustrative, not a quote.
A tariff is one of four common reasons a bill runs high; the others are covered in why is my heat pump electricity bill high.
Checklist for comparing tariffs
- Get the electricity use your quote assumes. Ask the installer for the expected annual kWh of the heat pump, and the design SCOP behind it.
- Check eligibility. Many time-of-use products ask for a heat pump or other electric heating and a smart meter. Check you qualify before counting the saving.
- Compute the blended rate from the supplier’s own rates for your region and your likely pattern of use, and add the standing charge for the year.
- Compare to the default. At the cap that is 26.32p per kWh and 54.83p a day for 1 October to 31 December 2026, a national average that your region may differ from.
- Read the term and exit fees. Fixed deals can carry fees if you leave early.
- Think about batteries and solar. If you have or plan either, the best tariff may be a different one.
- Re-check annually. Rates and products change, and the zero-VAT period on electricity ends on 31 March 2027 unless it is extended.
When to switch
The sensible order is: get the grant and quote right first (the £7,500 grant, or £9,000 for qualifying oil and LPG homes, comes off the installer’s price); install; then look at tariffs once the system is commissioned and you know its real electricity use. Choosing a tariff before the heat pump is installed means estimating a number you will soon be able to measure. The one exception is when you are already due to renew a deal: avoid locking into a long fixed term with exit fees that you may want to leave.
If you also want to understand why your installer’s efficiency figure is the biggest lever of all, see sizing and radiators, and for the bigger decision see whether a heat pump is worth it.
Tariff doubts
“A heat pump tariff will save me hundreds a year.”
It can, but only if the average price you pay per kWh really falls and your usage fits the cheap windows. Each 1p off the average price is worth about £40 a year on the 4,000 kWh a heat pump uses in our model. A tariff that is cheap overnight but dear in the evening can cost more than the default if the heating runs mostly at peak.
We cannot give you a saving figure for your house without your usage pattern, which is why this page shows the arithmetic rather than a promise.
“I do not want to run my life around cheap hours.”
You mostly do not have to. A heat pump heats a house that holds its temperature, and many people leave the controls to do the shifting. If you prefer not to touch it, a flat-rate or fixed tariff is a legitimate choice; the saving is just smaller.
“Is the Ofgem cap the best price I can get?”
No. The cap is the maximum suppliers can charge people on default tariffs, according to Ofgem. At 1 October to 31 December 2026 it is 26.32p per kWh for electricity. Fixed and time-of-use tariffs are separate products priced by suppliers, so compare them against that default rather than against the cap alone.